How I See It: A Personal View by Denzil McDaniel - 'We’re going to have to have a deal which respects everyone'

Sinn Fein’s Deputy First Minister did not look at all well as he appeared in front of the cameras this week to announce his resignation; he was frail, (we’re told as a result of a serious and rare heart problem) and his ill-health was enough for some to unleash a barrage of personal hatred.

Personally, I found it abhorrent that, despite what opinion people have of his politics, a section of society thinks it acceptable to spew venom towards an ill individual.

It seems to be a modern phenomenon. But in this case, it says a lot about the so-called changing times. Nobody reflects change in Northern Ireland more than Martin McGuinness; and this week we have seen footage of him in his 20s as a young IRA leader, in striking comparison to the gaunt 66-year-old politician.
It’s not just physical change over the decades, of course. Nobody symbolises the move from violence to the political arena more than Martin McGuinness. When he is being praised for his role in the peace process over the last 10 years, it seems ironic that he has done more than many Unionists to keep devolution alive at Stormont, that bastion of Unionism, and indeed in his work across the world as well as at home, he’s given a lot to promote this place.

Even some of his detractors politically concede that he has been civil, respectful and personable in his dealings. I think he’s absolutely justified in saying he’s reached out to Unionists.

His remarkable friendship with the late Ian Paisley remains an astonishing bookmark in the move towards peace. And don’t underestimate how badly it went down in certain Republican circles when he shook hands with the Queen. (And yes, I know in the mirror image, Unionists found it difficult to see the Queen shaking hands with him.)
And yet, time and again there are many within the Unionist community whose default position is to reference his IRA credentials, to liken any Unionist relationship with him as akin to dealing with the devil. The leopard can’t change his spots, and all that.

Well, Martin McGuinness has changed. He was no saint; he was a Commander in the IRA, an organisation engaged in bloody violence. He makes no secret of that, indeed is proud of it, a fact which victims of Republicans understandably find difficult to deal with. His reasons for what he felt was necessary in embracing physical force are well-documented.

That was when he was in his 20s and 30s. In the 1980s, he began to be involved in electoral politics and, now a 66-year-old grandfather, I would argue he has made personal sacrifices in assisting significant peaceful progress in this country. Not least in standing up to other Republicans who disagree with him; who will forget his description of dissidents as “traitors” for engaging in violence?

Is there any of us who can say that we are not changed people in our 60s than we were in our 20s? Perhaps some, who will not accept we have moved on.

Would the young Martin McGuinness have said: “I believe a united Ireland is inevitable. But I believe it can only happen by peaceful and democratic means.” As the now ex-Deputy First Minister did.
McGuinness resigned on Monday, and it seems everybody will get what nobody wants – an election.

Ostensibly, this is about the RHI scandal, or “cash for ash” as it’s been dubbed. And that has certainly brought it to a head. Attempts to portray this as a “media storm” have been shown up to be nonsense; the issue clearly went deep and has been badly handled by First Minister, Arlene Foster.

Who advised her to go on the Nolan programme before she’d even heard what Jonathan Bell had to say? And kept advising her to get deeper and deeper into the bunker?

It remains to be seen how much damage the controversy will have done to the DUP. One suspects that “Team Arlene” will still be in a strong position in Fermanagh where she remains popular as “one of their own” and she is well-liked and has a certain amount of sympathy for the incredible personal pressure she’s faced. And is actually admired for standing up to it, whatever others may think of her arrogance.

Their election campaign will look for an endorsement of standing up for Unionism.

But the election won’t be a single issue one, and already we’re seeing the old, traditional battle lines being drawn. Despite massive shifts across the world at recent elections, the prediction is (pretty much) more of the same in Northern Ireland. Even though, the Greens and People Before Profit have made gains in recent elections, and there is also a real worry about the declining voting patterns.

And there will be change in that each constituency will return only five MLAs instead of six. Last year, Fermanagh-south Tyrone voted in two DUP (Foster and Morrow), two Sinn Fein (Gildernew and Lynch) one Ulster Unionist (Barton) and one SDLP (McPhillips), so someone will lose their job.

Who that will be will depend on who can get their vote out, and recent polls here have shown that this is variable more than previously; as evidenced by Richie McPhillips taking a seat.

But are the people who do go out to vote going to come out of their silos this time? Unlikely.

Everyone expects the DUP and Sinn Fein to emerge as the largest parties again. And while nerds and election-watchers like me enjoy following the results, it’s afterwards when the really interesting part comes.

It’s clear Sinn Fein has been under pressure from its support base with many of their voters feeling they’ve been disrespected by the DUP’s lack of goodwill through the Haas talks, the Stormont House Agreement, Fresh Start and, particularly, it would seem the Irish language. They’ve already set out their stall for elections, with the arrogance and corruption of the DUP (Red Sky, Nama included).

So Martin McGuinness points out there will be no return to the status quo.

And Sinn Fein is in a very strong position. Nothing symbolised that more than the fact that Arlene Foster, a Unionist First Minister, wasn’t able to make an official Ministerial statement before Christmas when Martin McGuinness withdrew his support. And indeed, when he resigned this week, it meant the end of the Executive.

Years ago, in the good old days of one-party rule at Stormont, if Nationalists walked out, the one Unionist party just kept going. And even in the early days of this Assembly nearly 20 years ago, resignations by David Trimble and Seamus Mallon were merely blips which were overcome.

In the event of an election, all the parties will be in traditional battle mode.

It’s when they come back to negotiate that the real crisis will have to be faced, and whether the two main blocks can work together in a way that has until now proved impossible. Jim Allister blames the system of mandatory coalition for that, and he has a point.

But surely the key to making the accommodation work is the hearts and minds of those given the responsibility. That is a two-way street.

Republicans are (rightly in my opinion) annoyed at the disrespect of the Irish language; one can only wonder at what goes through the head of Gregory Campbell when he mocks Irish.

Both sides need to feel they have something to gain, not least the respect of their own community and culture. Despite some find sounding words from the likes of Declan Kearney, Republicans have more to do in terms of recognising the hurt they’ve caused.

Many of you may well not be bothered as to whether Stormont ever gets up and running or not; they’ve done nothing for us is a common complaint. But actually, I want it to work for the sake of keeping local decision-making into local hands.

Make no mistake, this is a real crisis and these are worrying times.
My worry for Unionism is that over the years of my lifetime, from the 1960s on, every time they turn their back on a proper and respectful accommodation with Nationalism, they end up coming back to the table to a diminished deal.

The McGuinness detractors may well glory in his physical demise, and be glad to see the back of him if he doesn’t stand again. But he will be replaced, possibly even by another former IRA man in Conor Murphy.

And at some point, Unionists and Republicans will have to share society here.

How many more crises will it take?