The old cliché says that a week is a long time in politics; but progress in Northern Ireland is so exceedingly slow that it defies this convention.

How about a year then? Think back to early 2016, and consider the situation back then, barely over a year ago.

As we entered New Year 2016, Peter Robinson was still officially First Minister, with Martin McGuinness Deputy. David Cameron was British Prime Minister preparing for a referendum which most polls predicted would see the United Kingdom remain in the EU.

Hillary Clinton was heading for a historic victory in the United States which would see her become the first woman President in the White House.

And Arsenal were fairly certain of their usual top four finish in the Premier League.

In January last year, Peter Robinson fulfilled his commitment to officially stand down as First Minister, and his successor Arlene Foster was the toast of the DUP with a 10-seat lead over Sinn Fein at the May elections, dashing UUP leader Mike Nesbitt’s hopes of a revival of the grand old party.

Now look. Robinson, McGuinness, Cameron, Clinton and Nesbitt all gone. What a difference a little over a year makes.

Where will we expect to be in another 16 months? And what part will the current election play in all this?

Unlike one of her predecessors, Gordon Brown, the present incumbent Theresa May has seized the opportunity presented by her undoubted advantage at the polls to try to concrete her position of power. While nobody was fooled by the “all in it together” rubbish spouted by Cameron and his rich cronies, Mrs. May’s desire for a “country that works not for the privileged few but for every one of us” hardly convinces people just about managing.

Despite this, the political obituary of Jeremy Corbyn is already being written.

And with the good old British tabloid press running with banner headlines of “Blue Murder” and “Hunt the Saboteurs”, it’s clear that the May regime will not only rout Labour but put themselves in a strong position against their own right.

The only change being predicted is an emboldened Tory party charging head first out of Europe.

On the face of it, far from progressing forward to a new era, it would seem Northern Ireland is heading back to the future. Direct rule looks increasingly likely, and talk of pacts is another sign of the same old, same old.

As opposed to Assembly and European PR elections, the Westminster first past the post system means the Unionist and Nationalist power blocs will line up against each other, and “understandings”, agreements and pacts on the Unionist side are the order of the day. It’s an early chance for Unionists to regain some morale after the last Assembly election setbacks.

Nowhere have the two sides come up against each other in such a direct way than the iconic seat of Fermanagh-south Tyrone. The Ulster Unionists were quickly out of the blocks, nominating the sitting MP Tom Elliott who recaptured the seat two years ago after Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew held it for 14 years. 

Despite flexing their muscles as the lead party of Unionism elsewhere, the DUP quickly made it clear that Elliott would get a free run. This follows a long pattern within Unionism here; only once has the DUP fought this constituency in a Westminster poll. There have been other contests, for example when Jim Dixon fought James Cooper, but in the election before last Rodney Connor was another example of a number of the way Unionists in the west came together. Even then they just missed out, but the cold fact of realism which Unionists have grasped is that only when they rally round one candidate can they hope to win Fermanagh-south Tyrone.

This is what “did for” Fearghal McKinney when the former Impartial Reporter journalist was selected by the SDLP in 2010. When McKinney entered the fray, it had been expected to be at least a four-cornered contest, but as soon as Connor’s agreed candidacy emerged, it was clear that the SDLP’s vote would continue the downward spiral it has suffered since the elections in 1981 of Bobby Sands and Owen Carron.

Briefly this time, the SDLP leader Colm Eastwood flirted with the idea of a pact with Sinn Fein, but once the fig leaf cover of the Greens’ possible involvement was removed, it was clear that a pact was only going to be a Nationalist mirror image of the Unionist one. Whatever the talk of a Brexit alliance.

Such a pact, though, may have spared the SDLP a further embarrassment in Fermanagh-south Tyrone. When Michelle Gildernew says her party is “chomping at the bit” to win back this seat, she ain’t wrong.

While it will be some time before the full picture emerges in the other 17 Northern Ireland seats, it will be a major surprise if Fermanagh-south Tyrone doesn’t become, in the words of the lazy soundbite, the traditional sectarian headcount.

As much as we would like politicians to have the noble idea of taking power with the sole purpose of making people’s lives better, large swathes of voters endorse all parties right to enter elections to win for their side.

As Frank McManus succinctly put it, it’s all about voting “for the Union” of “agin the Union.”
No change there, then?
There is change, though, surely.

The fact that we are a Border constituency puts some very important context on the Brexit debate.

But even more so, elections increasingly are being fought to a background of calls for a Border poll as the demographics see Unionists in a minority within Northern Ireland for the first time since the state was formed nearly a century ago. 

In a recent newspaper article, Alban Maginness wrote about “why Unionists should discuss Irish unity now from a position of strength not weakness.”

They won’t, of course, even though Sophie Long, former press officer of the PUP of all parties, suggested they should prepare for the possibility of a united Ireland. Unionists say they are confident that the Union is safe. And they are probably right, for now, but the identity debate will continue to be ever more relevant in succeeding elections.

As always, we will watch contests like Fermanagh-south Tyrone with great interest.

Indeed, across Northern Ireland, the election results coverage will be a great spectator sport.

Unionists may well regain some lost ground this time, but as ever the question after June 8 will be what next?