Longer term prospects for the beef industry are more promising with opportunities for beef farmers, according to Darren Carty, who spoke at an open meeting in Fermanagh last week.

Darren, from the Irish Farmers’ Journal, is a former adviser with Teagasc and has worked on the BETTER farm programme.

Looking at opportunities and challenges in the livestock sector from 2014-2020, he recalled how there were some 150,000 extra cattle from the suckler herd born in 2011, with a big increase in dairy born cattle. However he says with numbers going through the system now, there will be 150,000 fewer cattle next year.

Referring to the farmers’ protests at meat plants over what they described as low beef prices, Darren said there has been considerable criticism of the meat companies’ prices in Ireland which have been estimated to be up to 350 euros less than the equivalent R3 animal in the United Kingdom. He said the two markets, UK and Ireland had been disjointed since April with a 40 cents per kilo difference in prices through much of this time.

However he predicted that beef supplies would tighten in the longer term with less cattle available for exports and for slaughter.

Looking at opportunities for growth, he said farmers throughout the island of Ireland were producers of high quality meat proteins and were developing greater access to niche and premium markets.

Looking at the expected population growth between now and the year 2050, the overall world population is expected to increase by around 30 per cent. But the highest growth is likely to be in Africa, showing an 86 per cent increase with a 24 per cent increase expected in Asia, 22 per cent more in Latin America and 29 per cent increase in North America.

He suggested that if beef offal was accepted by China, there was potential for them to buy all the offal from Ireland, UK, Germany and France together, such is the size of the market.

He told farmers how beef and sheepmeat carcases were now being more effectively used than compared with some years ago. Even the heads and feet of sheep are exported to niche markets.

He said the population growth would be more marked in Asia and North Africa, aided by economic growth through value added products. In China, the number of middle class in society is forecast to increase by 1.2 billion people over the next 20 years, giving potential opportunities for new markets.

The global restaurant chain, McDonalds is said to open a new outlet in China every day, and in India, one a week.

Looking at the relationship between prices and supplies, he said tighter supplies would have an affect on demand over a period of time but other factors were at play such as the Russian ban on imports, leaving more beef in the EU market.

The beef industry had suffered confidence from the beef crisis, unviable enterprises and land fragmentation. The age profile of farmers and conacre issues were also affecting the beef industry throughout Ireland. The average farm size in Ireland is now 32.7 hectares or around 83 acres and farmers are also becoming older.

Looking at the future expansion in the dairy industry, Darren said the recent dip in milk prices had brought a reality check, especially to those considering expanding into dairying.

Another major factor in the future will be the implications of CAP Reform over the next few years.

There were many factors outside the control of beef farmers such as the debate over growing grass for either food or fuel as there was a big demand for grass production for bioethanol and water availability issues in some parts of the world such as the U.S.

He said there were threats from the lower feed prices which might force cattle finishers to push their animals to heavier weights, in countries such as the UK, Spain, Italy and France and also the risk of cheaper imports from Eastern Europe such as Poland as a result of the Russian ban on food imports from the EU.

Overall, he said, despite some short term difficulties, he saw opportunities for beef production in the longer term.