Stalemate's implication for Fermanagh-south Tyrone

Editorial Department • Published 4 Feb 2010 14:47 0 Comments

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Stalemate in the long-running saga of talks of devolution of policing and justice is casting a shadow over politics in Fermanagh and south Tyrone.

The official calling of a General Election is just weeks away, with May 6 almost certain to be named polling day. But it would seem everything is up in the air as regards who will contest the Westminster seat here.

Much of that uncertainty is on the Unionist side, with talk of mergers, pacts and agreed "non-party" candidates.

The clearest position is that of Sinn Fein, who have selected sitting MP, Michelle Gildernew. Despite some internal divisions within Sinn Fein in Fermanagh since she won the seat in 2005, with defections at Council level, Ms Gildernew is in a strong position.

The SDLP has not selected a candidate to run yet, but it would be a surprise if they did not contest the seat and also a surprise if their candidate was not Tommy Gallagher, their current MLA.

The party is, of course, in the throes of their own election -- that of leader to succeed Mark Durkan.

Both hopefuls, Margaret Ritchie and Alastair McDonnell appear to have their supporters in Fermanagh.

If, or probably when, the SDLP selects its candidate, they will have quite a task on their hands to overall Sinn Fein.

Whether a deal can be cut over policing and justice would appear to have little impact, and in a speech locally this week, Michelle Gildernew warned that her party "will not tolerate any return to Orange rule" and that any precondition on parades ahead of the transfer of policing and justice powers will "simply not work."

From a straw poll this week of some Unionists Councillors, it would appear that most Ulster Unionists and DUP people in Fermanagh do want policing and justice devolved. But like the rest of the Province, there are varying degress of warmth for when and how.

So, what of Unionist unity for the Westminster seat?

As if the picture hadn't been muddy enough, this week's suggestion by Jim Allister's Traditional Ulster Voice (TUV) of an agreed "non-party" Unionist confuses things even more.

The Ulster Unionists have already selected Assembly member, Tom Elliott, while the DUP have formally selected Acting First Minister, Arlene Foster.

There had been hints last year that Fermanagh-south Tyrone would be linked with South Belfast in some sort of electoral deal, but that appeared to be going nowhere.

Then it emerged that Orange Order leaders had convened talks between the UUP and DUP and suddenly the prospect of a wider pact emerged - even to the point of a possible merger of the two parties!

Ulster Unionist leader, Sir Reg Empey has knocked that on the head.

But the rejection of a possible merger with the DUP does not rule out a joint unionist candidate for Fermanagh and South Tyrone according to Tom Elliott, who said that following a meeting of the UUP Executive on Tuesday evening they would continue to look at the possibility of joint candidates in certain constituencies.

"In reality I think people were over the top with a unionist merger. There have been a couple of meetings and discussions did look at the possibility of broader arrangements but we did not come to any conclusion. Obviously we talked about the elephant that is always in the room, that is Fermanagh and South Tyrone and South Belfast but we want to look at it at a larger level. Obviously with the (Hillsborough) talks ongoing there are still meetings but we ruled out that there will be any merger," he said.

A statement released by the TUV following a combined meeting of Fermanagh and South Tyrone branches of the party unanimously agreed that "We believe that no candidate from the three main Unionist parties can secure sufficient support to win the seat. It therefore behoves all Unionist parties to put country before party. Only if all Unionists unite around a single non-party candidate can the seat be taken from Republicans. Such an individual would have to be able to command the support of all strands of Unionism in the constituency."

We were unable to contact Arlene Foster yesterday due to her continuing participation in the current talks, but it is unlikely the DUP position has changed; they have said they would welcome an agreement involving Fermanagh-south Tyrone and South Belfast. But they are proceeding with Mrs. Foster candidature.

However, responding to Tom Elliott that a possible unionist unity candidate for the Westminster election has not been ruled out, she said through her constituency office, "I welcome the news that a joint candidate has not been ruled out by the UUP in Fermanagh. As your readers will be aware I have long awaited to see a resolution to this situation and look forward to positive engagement."

As far as the DUP is concerned, though, they are a party with much internal tension to deal with over the present impasse.

It was widely reported that a vote by their Assembly team over accepting the policing and justice deal divided them 60-40, with 14 Assembly members against it and resignations threatened.

Ironically, the speculation is that the two Fermanagh-south Tyrone DUP members are on opposite sides of the argument, with Arlene Foster in favour and Lord Morrow against it.

All electoral considerations on the Unionist side are on hold until the present impasse is sorted out.

But it is clearly nearing an end game; and with the Government saying that "no deal" will mean elections rather than suspending the Assembly, it could well be that we won't have to wait until May for a poll here.

New Assembly elections would then be held before the Westminster poll in May.

This article appeared in Impartial Reporter 04 Feb 10

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