Health Minister, Robin Swann, today released worst case scenario percentages which when applied to Fermanagh's population would indicate that as many as 4,000 people in Fermanagh could require hospitalisation, with up to 500 deaths occurring as a result of coronavirus. 

The Minister, however, stressed that the public could help slow the spread of total people infected and also reduce the number of deaths. He revealed that “if social distancing and other measures are implemented by the population” it could “reduce deaths by up to a third”.

In an urgent written statement to the Assembly Minister Swann said: “From the planning assumptions available to the HSC in a reasonable worst case scenario - if we fail as a community to take action to slow down the transmission of the virus in line with the recommended public health guidance - up to 80% of the Northern Ireland population will be infected during this epidemic.”

The Minister went on to say: “Planning assumptions also indicate that 8% of infected people will require hospitalisation, 0.7 per cent will require critical care, and 1 per cent will die.”

The population of Fermanagh at the last census in 2011 was just short of 62,000. If 80 per cent of the population becomes infected this equates to 50,000 people and taking the 1 per cent mortality rates as released by Minister Swann it would predict the number of deaths in Fermanagh due to the virus at 500. 4000 people would require hospitalisation based on the figures released today.