Looking at the wards, in Enniskillen in 2019, Sinn Féin’s two candidates, Debbie Coyle and Tommy Maguire, picked up the most first preference votes (1,707) between them; however, it was only Councillor Maguire who was elected.

The DUP’s Keith Elliott was elected on the first count with 1,161, and he was followed by Paul Blake (SDLP), Robert Irvine and Howard Thornton (both UUP), Tommy Maguire (SF) and Donal O’Cofaigh (CCLA).

Despite taking in the third-highest number of first preference votes (946), and needing 87 to reach quota (1,033), Councillor Maguire was only elected on the seventh stage and only received 12 transfer votes.

His running partner, Miss Coyle, lost her seat to Councillor O’Cofaigh at stage seven as well.

READ MORE ON OTHER FERMANAGH DEAS: Erne North

This year, Sinn Féin are running three candidates instead of two with Dermot Browne and Andrea McManus running alongside Councillor Maguire.

Renowned for their vote management, it will be interesting to see how splitting the first preference votes across three candidates will work for Sinn Féin in Enniskillen and how the transfers play out.

For the DUP, Councillor Elliott polled almost three times as much as his running partner in 2019, Simon Wiggins, and it will be interesting to see if the DUP manage their vote to give new face Jill Mahon a chance of election.

The SDLP’s Paul Blake polled the second-highest first preference votes (955), and with transfers was elected at stage four in 2019, Alliance transfers eventually getting him over the line.

READ MORE ON OTHER FERMANAGH DEAS: Erne East

For the UUP, Councillors Irvine and Thornton were duly elected above quota thanks to transfers in 2019.

Roy Crawford replaced Councillor Thornton last year and is running alongside Councillor Irvine.

The UUP have a strong presence in Fermanagh and will hope it continues. However, in 2019, Councillors Irvine and Thornton received substantial transfers from the TUV’s Mr. Crawford when he was excluded.

With contrasting party views on the current situation around the Northern Ireland Protocol, we could see these transfers go elsewhere to the DUP instead, who are more aligned in thinking with the TUV, and put the UUP seats under threat.

Councillor O’Cofaigh, who took the final seat, has made his 2023 campaign mainly about health issues, given his involvement in the campaign to save services at the South West Acute Hospital, which has attracted widespread interest in recent times.

He may come under threat, Sinn Féin’s candidates saying he took the seat from Miss Coyle last time out, but he is more transfer-friendly than Sinn Féin.

READ MORE ON OTHER FERMANAGH DEAS: Erne West

Looking at the other candidates, the TUV’s Mr. Crawford will be looking to continue the party’s recent increase in support. The party polled well at last year’s Assembly elections with their stance on Brexit and Northern Ireland Protocol serving them well.

Alliance is also a party on an upward curve, and despite the west of Northern Ireland not being a stronghold for the party, Eddie Roofe could pull in some votes for the party in Enniskillen; 2019 saw them double their first preference votes from 2014.