A REPORT that is alleged to be a summary of the Hatch Report, commissioned by the Department for the Economy, has revealed that some of the potential economic impacts of petroleum exploration would be relatively low.

The details – which appeared on the Eco Leaks Facebook page on November 21 – show the economic, societal and environmental impacts of on-shore petroleum exploration in Northern Ireland ranging from low-development scenarios to high-development.

The alleged report states that while there has been an increase in Northern Ireland’s oil and gas resources in the past 15 years, the lack of commercial development means there are gaps in the information necessary to “make a meaningful estimate of the technically recoverable resources”.

Currently, Tamboran has a Petroleum Licensing Application which covers more than half of Fermanagh, and there is fear amongst fracking opposition in the county that this study could lead to this licence being approved.

The development scenarios in the claimed report state that a low-development petroleum exploration would see a total of 10 vertical wells, moderate-development 18, and high-development a total of 34 such wells, between 2021 and 2050.

It has been reported that Tamobran, to be commercially successful, would require 3,000 wells.

‘Limit the scope’

In the review on the economic impact, the claimed report says the “nature of the Northern Ireland economy and its infrastructure would limit the scope to secure both upstream and downstream economic benefits from future on-shore oil and gas development”.

Under a high-development scenario, employment would range from 110-155 jobs while the annual Gross Value Added (GVA) would range from £7.6-£11.3 million in this scenario.

The low-development would see this impact value estimated at £2.2-£3.3 million.

Also, it reports that while large-scale production of oil and gas could benefit other sectors of the economy here, it would be unlikely to provide a driver for additional growth or attract investors to Northern Ireland.

Looking at the social and environmental impacts of on-shore petroleum licensing, the alleged report shows all development scenarios would have at least a moderate adverse impact on health, while the high-development scenario would also affect water, climate change, noise and seismicity, soils, landscapes and biodiversity, air quality and waste management.

It adds the significance of the effects under the high-development scenarios for groundwater abstraction and pollution, especially for unconventional development activities, and social cohesion and community well-being receptors, are assessed as being of major adverse significance.

There are gaps in the available evidence, according to the claimed report, which makes “reliable assessments of the consequences of development, and the scope for regulatory control and good practice to adequately manage them, challenging”.

These include groundwater aquifers that could be polluted as a result of failure or deterioration of well integrity, these aquifers being polluted, and the long-term leakage of gas after a well closure.

When contacted about the alleged report and whether it was legitimate, the Department for the Economy neither confirmed nor denied its veracity, stating the Hatch Report “will be published when the Department is in a position to publicly consult on the future options for petroleum licensing following consideration by the Executive”.