‘BREXIT’ is the word on everyone’s lips, and, as the momentous reality that the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union sinks in, local businesses are hoping that politicians in Britain can quickly navigate the economic and political crisis and avoid global upheaval.

In the space of a single day, the UK renounced its most important international relationship, lost a prime minister, seen the value of sterling collapse and called into question the unity of the United Kingdom.

As southern cars descended on Enniskillen at the weekend, the immediate short-term impact of the fall in the sterling became apparent. 

While local businesses might be able to cash in on southern and European visitors in the short-term, the long-term implications of BREXIT leave business owners with questions on the future of investment, hiring, growth, cross border trading, exchange rates and existing trade relationships. 

The possibility of a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is a cause of concern, particularly for local tourism providers.

Texan, Mark Ward, is a member of the American investment group which bought the Lough Erne Resort last summer. Speaking to The Impartial Reporter from Dallas, he admitted: “I’m still barely a neophyte in Irish and UK politics, and certainly don’t claim to be a global economist, so it’s hard for me to take a position on the long term affects of this decision, but this is certainly a blow against globalism.” 

His initial reaction was one of surprise. Upon reflection over the weekend, he believes that while the vote to leave “has more political implications than long term global, economic ones,” it is “certain to have negative economic impact on the UK over the next few years.”

Mr. Ward continued: “As far as how it affects our business interests in Northern Ireland – short term, especially being on the border, we should benefit from the continuing weaker sterling as hopefully ROI travellers seek the value in the North. 

That said, a lot of volatility in the currency markets is not really a good thing and there is also the prospect that the economic uncertainty might cause people to pull in on spending and stay home. 
“We would prefer to see long term stability than short term gains from extreme currency fluctuations. 
“Long term, I would be more concerned about how future regional political changes effect tourism to Northern Ireland. Most international visitors will continue to fly into Dublin, and any hindrance of travel related to border checkpoints, and the uncertainty affiliated with a border referendum, would probably have a very severe impact on Northern Ireland tourism – that’s what I would be the most worried about.”

He concluded: “The only thing that is certain is that the world is changing fast, and people are getting frustrated with the status quo.”

Jacqueline Wright, Director of the Killyhevlin Hotel agrees that a renewed border could pose problems. She cannot see how the UK government would attempt to fulfill its pledge to tackle immigration without border check points. 

“It was a protest vote. It doesn’t do much for our image in Europe. I am disappointed. Like most of the people in Fermanagh I was hoping for a remain vote; I couldn’t understand the result. Generally, I’m concerned about the uncertainty of it all – nobody knows,” Mrs. Wright said. “It creates a lot of uncertainty which is not good for tourism or the economy. It will be a long time before we know the effects. Export businesses will be most affected by this; imports are now more expensive too because of the exchange rate.”

President of Lisnaskea Chamber of Commerce, Shane Wilson notes that “Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU and still finds itself in a deep political and economic tangle.”
He said: “The decision will leave some businesses pleased and others disappointed. The Stormont Executive need a swift and co-ordinated action plan to steady the markets and more importantly any concerns of the business community. Businesses quite rightly will have questions on the future of investment, hiring, growth, cross border trading, exchange rates and existing trade relationships, so there needs to be a detailed plan to support the economy and avoid a prolonged period of uncertainty.”

In the short term, he believes that “Fermanagh will benefit with increased footfall due to the drop in the sterling.” However, he adds: “long term is where the uncertainty is, particularly, how and if free trade can happen between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.”

Mr. Wilson concluded: “Although there is uncertainty as to what is ahead, any wave of change can create opportunities. The challenge is to establish where those economic opportunities are and more importantly now is the time for strong, positive leadership.”

Canice Nicholas, Joint Director of Cara Pharmacy commented: “It is still very difficult to make any comment as no one really knows the implications so I think main thing is to stay calm – Yes there will be changes but none of know what these will be.”

Pat Blake, Director of the Patrick Blake Group, was surprised when he heard that the UK had voted to Leave the EU. 
“We all thought that the remain group would squeeze through, but we have no say. It’s a fait accompli. You just have the make the most of it.” He agrees that the exchange rate (€1 = 83 pence) will attract more visitors into Northern Ireland in the short term. 
In addition, with the pound to dollar rate, Tourism Ireland will be working hard to get more people into Ireland.”
He expects that his business will soon be affected by the increased cost of importing wine from Europe.

One possible advantage, according to Mr. Blake is that “BREXIT might free up the opportunity to bring in minimum pricing unit for alcohol once and for all.” The policy was backed by Pubs of Ulster but was ultimately blocked by the European Court of Justice because it would restrict the free market. “We will be able to make laws like that without the interference of the European Courts,” said Mr. Blake.

He concluded: “I don’t expect for a moment that we will ever again see a ‘hard’ border with customs posts – it would be impossible to enforce it in any event. However, I do expect more stringent controls at our sea ports and our air ports because the UK won’t want Northern Ireland to be seen as a ‘back door’ for migrants trying to get from the Republic of Ireland, through Northern Ireland and across to Britain.”