Ahead of the United Kingdom triggering its exit from the European Union in March 2017, Conservative MP Robin Walker, the Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Exiting the European Union, attended a business breakfast at The Valley Hotel last Friday morning.

Almost 200 people were present at the event which was organised by the Ulster Unionist Party to discuss the economic implications of Brexit. 

Outlining his “greatest fear” for Northern Ireland’s agricultural and farming sector, UUP Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Jim Nicholson stated: “Once the UK leaves the EU, the next CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform begins next year and we will have no part in that. I still am the standing rapporteur for the dairy sector and that sector is going through terribly tough times. 
“When the UK leaves Europe, the power base is going to move to the southern member states and the next CAP reform will be a French reform of agriculture and we in Northern Ireland face a situation where our neighbours south of the border will benefit an awful lot more from that.”

Read: The local business sector reacts to the stunning Brexit and its possible impacts

Danske Bank’s Head of agribusiness, Robert McCullough warned “it is absolutely key” that the UK Government agrees a negotiated trade deal with Europe, because if it does not, farmers will face a 42 per cent tariff on dairy and a 16.5 per cent tariff on lamb.

Taking a more positive note, Mike Mullan, Moy Park’s HR and Organisation Development Director for Europe said he feels “enthused”, “positive” and “very reassured” by Minister Walker’s approach.

Mr. Mullan stated: “The Moy Park position on Brexit is that [we need] a coherent voice in Westminster, trade access, food security and labour availability. We export food and Britain does not export food, that’s the big concern and we need to get that priority above financial services and above motor cars.”

In response, Minister Walker addressed labour mobility. “Clearly there is a challenge in the referendum result and the desire to have the ability to take more control over our borders and movement [of people] but I would draw a distinction between taking back control and then the extent to which you actually exercise it.” He said: “It won’t be for my department to make the final decisions on labour mobility. The final decisions will be reached with the devolved administrations, the Home Office and the Treasury."

Michael McGoldrick, who works in the community and voluntary sector, asked: “What will happen to corporation tax when the UK leaves the EU?”

The Minister replied: “The Chancellor has said that the UK as a whole will reduce corporation tax but agreements have been made in terms of Northern Ireland taking more responsibility for these decisions and it’s very important that we stand by those agreements. It will be a challenge for the Executive to come up with the right policy to take things forward. The circumstances are different to what was envisaged when that process was started. 

“The argument will still be made about where it is most competitive to locate businesses. It is still the case that NI needs to build up its private sector. Within that context, the UK will be seeking to be as competitive as it can in terms of attracting international investment and it will be for the Northern Ireland Executive to reach the right decision on corporation tax.”

David Kerr, Director of Strategic Planning stakeholder engagement company based in Belfast told the meeting: “Since Brexit we have detected no downturn in activity and investment confidence in the property sector remains quietly bullish.”

He said there is an “infrastructural deficit” in Northern Ireland, adding: “I would like to see a dual carriageway from Ballygawley roundabout to Enniskillen and onto Sligo – I don’t know what that is not an aspiration for everyone in this part of the world. It would do the economy of this end of Northern Ireland no end of good.”

He told Minister Walker: “I would like you to take back to the Treasury the very clear aspiration that we need our infrastructure and our roads invested in. We need people to stand up for Northern Ireland.”

The Minister replied: “You are right. The Northern Ireland economy has a productivity challenge and a key part of boosting productivity across the UK is going to be investment in infrastructure. My fist meeting in Northern Ireland was with the Infrastructure Minister. It is an area we are engaging with and I will certainly take that message back to the Treasury.”

Read: The local business sector reacts to the stunning Brexit and its possible impacts

Brian Telford, Head of Markets at Danske Bank moved to allay fears about currency exposure.

He told delegates to “look for opportunities” out of Brexit, such as finding new trading partners in markets such as Africa.

A survey of 50 global banks on the sterling-euro exchange rate over the next 12 months predicts a low of 1.03 against the euro and a high of 1.34 against the euro. Predictions for the dollar are a low of 1.15 and high of 1.41.

Mr. Telford stated: “A number of banks believe that there is massive structural weakness within Europe-land itself which will start to come out as the negotiations progress. Those predictions tell us one thing – nobody knows where it is going. We can agree that we are going to have some volatility.”
He added: “This is not uncharted territory if you are dealing with the euro. In terms of the next 12-18 months, banks and the markets see it as business as usual.

His advice for anyone involved in import/export is: “When you see a forecast, don’t trust it. Try not be drawn into looking at the price which looks attractive to you. You need to look at the other number because that’s the one that can do you damage.”

Mr. Telford concluded: “Over the past 30 years, I’ve seen us join and leave the exchange rate mechanism; I was sadly sitting at my desk at 9-11; I was around in 1999 when we joined the euro and everybody was saying if you’re not in the euro you are doomed. This is a slightly more significant event this time but Northern Ireland business is incredibly resilient. We found ways through everything, including what has gone on locally for the past few decades. We will find ways to work through this.”